Something Interesting Regarding Civil War II Here and Elsewhere

I found the following while reading 'Civil War Two' by Thomas W. Chittum, page 110:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/misc/CWII.pdf


When will Civil War II actually erupt? There is no scientific formula or mathematical equation that will give us the date. Instead, we must turn our attention to the demographic forces propelling us toward Civil War II, our ongoing transformation from a stable monoethnic nation into an unstable multiethnic empire. Not all history can be explained by this single engine of demographic transformation. Other factors can and do decide the boundaries and fates of empires and nations. However, the concept of nationality has been the dominate historical factor, at least since the industrial revolution. The more monoethnic a nation is, the less chance a secondary tribe will break off and form a new nation, or unite with their co-ethnics in an adjacent nation.
The more monoethnic a nation is, the less likely a neighboring country will try to carve off a slice inhabited by its coethnics as Nazi Germany seized the Sudentenland of Czechoslovakia. The more monoethnic a nation is, the more likely its citizens will unite and fight foreign invaders, thus again increasing the chances of territorial integrity.

It is certainly a book dealing with civil unrest in the USA, but I think there is something to be said for what Chittum wrote in regards to a larger geopolitical theater. While we may have a multi-ethnic society here that is becoming increasingly balkanized, it certainly is the case of Georgia and the breakaway South Ossetia region. In the case of that chunk of Georgia being broken away, it is because the New Soviet flooded the region with Russian-ethnic citizens, thus creating a 'crisis' whereupon Russia claimed a responsibility to help them. Others have written of this strategy, and I claim no special insight on this point.

What I intend to point out is that such infiltration and prying away of territory is not exclusive to Georgia at this point in time, nor is it a new idea by those who practice it. We are experiencing such a bit of history in the United States, and it makes me wonder if our own balkanization is by design.

More Rumblings On the Path to War?

This is something to watch, both as a story in and of itself, but as possibly part of a trend. Will there be more ministers forced from office riding inside a body bag? It seems, too, that Ingushetia is in a period of increasing instability - will the Russians ride to rescue, as they claim they are with South Osettia?

Russian ruling minister shot dead in Ingushetia

http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id=45885

A minister was shot dead inside his ministerial office in Russia's southern region of Ingushetia, officials said.

Wednesday, 12 August 2009 11:04
World Bulletin / News Desk

A minister was shot dead inside his ministerial office in Russia's southern region of Ingushetia on Wednesday, officials said.

The construction minister, Ruslan Amerkhanov, "was shot dead by an unidentified gunman this morning" in his office, a spokesman for the local prosecutor's office said.

[Whatta name! "Ruslan Amerkhanov"? Sounds like "Russian American". No way - could that be an intentional thing? -Ed]

Russian news agencies said Amerkhanov was shot dead at point-blank range when a group of armed men burst into his office in Ingushetia's capital of Magas.

Ingush President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov is recovering after being seriously wounded in a suicide bomb attack on his motorcade on June 22...

Lest We Forget... Big Badda Boom II

The Japanese will to fight still unbroken (though shaken) by the firstorms of Hiroshima, Truman ordered the next atomic attack. On August 9th of 1945, Nagasaki was struck by Fat Man, a 21 KT weapon. On September 2nd, the Japanese formally surrendered - they had had enough.

Of course, as will all warfare technologocal innovation, a race had begun in earnest...

Big Badda Boom

On August 6, 1945, the primary technological symbol of the Cold War was first used in anger. Today is the 64th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki#The_bombing

Georgia Update - Russia Points a Finger at the USA (Again)

A snip from another article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090804/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_georgia_2

"...Meanwhile, a senior Russian diplomat voiced concern about what he said were U.S. plans to provide military assistance to Georgia.

"Washington is playing the key role in rearming the Georgian military machine," Grigory Karasin, a deputy foreign minister, said in comments carried Tuesday by the Interfax agency.

"It would be in the interests of Georgian democracy ... to refuse to arm this country at all."

The U.S. is discussing a Georgian request for $16 million in military aid this year, with most of the money intended for training and technical assistance..."

Georgia Rumbles

I find it interesting that the EU monitors on site can't (or won't) confirm this, and Russia still claims it. What concerns me is that they may be working to a timetable that they consider inviolate, and will press ahead despite denials from other sources. Considering that I think that Russia's taking Georgia will be in conjuntion with actions in Iran and/or North Korea, it concerns me.

Russia says troops on alert in South Ossetia

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE57337B20090804?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Tue Aug 4, 2009 2:23pm BST

MOSCOW (Reuters) - A year after fighting a war with Georgia, Russia strengthened the combat readiness of its troops in rebel region South Ossetia on Tuesday and warned the United States against arming Georgia.

"Provocations from the Georgian side ahead of the anniversary of the August events last year are not stopping," Andrei Nesterenko, a spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry, said in a statement, referring to last August's five-day war.

"In connection with this, we have stepped up the combat readiness of Russian troops and border guards."

South Ossetia accused Georgian forces of firing mortars at the rebel territory last week, underscoring simmering tension in the region which analysts say could boil over into a new war.

Tbilisi denied the charge and monitors from the European Union said they have seen "no evidence" to confirm any shelling...

I'm Always Glad to Know There's Other Nutters Like Me

There is a very nice timeline in the post linked below from Timebomb2000. The link in that thread has more information, but I like the formatting and summation of the timeline better at TB2K. This should be of great interest to anyone who runs with the idea of a Soviet that never really died.

1991 Russia remains one country capable of destroying U.S. in less than 30 minutes

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=339579

1991 - Russia will remain the one country capable of destroying the U.S. in less than 30 minutes: Colin Powell warned, “Whatever the future state may look like, the land of the czars and commissars, after all is said and done, will still possess by far the strongest military force on the Eurasian land mass. The Soviet Union, now and in the future, will remain the one country capable of destroying the United States in less than 30 minutes.” (American Legion magazine, October 1991, p. 21)

The West Is SOOOOO Stupid Sometimes...

Well, as I have feared, the Russians are starting to whine and threaten about the gap between the end of the US Space Shuttle Program and the new Orion spacecraft to service the International Space Station.

The Space Race was a major battlefield for the hearts and minds of the world during the Cold War. A battle the Russians LOST. Now, any time the Russians can hold the US space program hostage, it does...

Russia says U.S. shuttle delays create a burden

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSTRE56S4WV20090729

Wed Jul 29, 2009 12:55pm EDT

MOSCOW (Reuters) - A senior Russian space official said delays in U.S. shuttle launches to the International Space Station (ISS) meant extra work for Russian rocket crews without any financial compensation, RIA news agency reported.

Russia and the United States are the main contributors to the 16-nation $100 billion ISS project, but Russia has borne the brunt of sending crews and cargo there since the U.S. Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated in 2003, killing seven astronauts.

"We are most concerned by the unpredictability of shuttle launches," RIA quoted Russian mission control flight coordinator Valdimir Solovyov as saying....

Cold War - Old School Style

Well, this looks a little alarming:


http://www.reuters.com/article/joeBiden/idUSLN49107

Russia vows to stop Georgia re-arming

MOSCOW, July 23 (Reuters) - Russia will take "concrete measures" to prevent Georgia from re-arming after its war with Moscow last year, ITAR-TASS news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin as saying on Thursday."We will continue to prevent the re-arming of (President Mikheil) Saakashvili's regime and will take concrete measures against this," the agency quoted Karasin as saying in an interview.

Given this article from the BBC, it seems we're going a little old school:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8165617.stm

US backs Georgia's Nato ambitions

The US "fully" backs Georgia's hopes of joining Nato, US Vice-President Joe Biden has told the country's parliament on a visit to the capital, Tbilisi.

Mr Biden is addressing fears in Georgia that the US might sideline its ally in favour of improved ties with Russia.

In a speech to Georgian MPs, he insisted that was not the case and declared: "We will stand with you."

However, Mr Biden also said that the former Soviet republic had to do "much more" to deepen its democracy...

A Tentacle of the New Soviet Breaches the Surface

Well, well, well. The following story is reminiscent of Soviet-style indiginous surveillance, and should bug anybody who has a memory of the Cold War, and likely disturb anyone who may ask if it could be perpetrated on them.

Bit by bit, festered member by festered member, the beast is being reborn:

Russian Intelligence Granted New Powers over Citizens

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35289&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=682b346e25

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 139
July 21, 2009 12:53 PM Age: 24 hrs
Category: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Home Page, Domestic/Social, Military/Security, Russia, Featured
By: Yuri Zarakhovich

On July 6, the Russian ministry of communications posted its Order 65, on its official website (www.minkomsvjaz.ru). Effective as of July 21, the order decrees that Russian postal services must make available for inspection on demand to the Federal Security Service (the FSB, the main successor to the Soviet KGB) and seven other Russian security service agencies any private mail or shipments, as well as its exhaustive data on senders and addressees. Special rooms where security officers will be able to open and inspect private mail were decreed to be established at post offices. Order 65 also cancels the privacy of electronic correspondence. Operators will now formally grant the security services access to their electronic databases...

Interesting

It seems the Russian adventures in Georgia are pissing off the old Soviet. GOOD!

Old allies signal loyalty to Russia has limits

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE56J2VV20090720

By Denis Dyomkin and Oleg Shchedrov - Analysis

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Kremlin will find it hard to ignore the absence of half the leaders of the former Soviet Union from an informal summit in Moscow last weekend, at a time when Europe is developing its interests in Russia's "back yard."

This year's Presidential Cup horse race, a traditional cue for an informal gathering of the 11-member Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), drew only five top guests: the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Tajikistan.

The presidents of Ukraine, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan all failed to show up, citing personal reasons. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko went instead to ride a Harley-Davidson at a local bikers' rally.

"The CIS leaders used the chance ... to show they are unhappy with the state of relations with Russia," said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Center of Political Information think tank.

Medvedev's predecessor Vladimir Putin had managed to stiffen the loyalty of the ex-Soviet states, helped by their economic dependence on Moscow and their fear of popular revolutions. But Russia's war with Georgia last year and a series of bilateral spats have strained this loyalty again.

"A race away from Russia is inevitable," analyst Leonid Radzikhovsky said on an opposition-minded web site, Yezhednyevny Zhurnal. (www.ej.ru)

NEW MOOD

Moscow's war with Georgia last year over the pro-Russian separatist region of South Ossetia marked the first time the Kremlin has deployed troops in anger outside its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union, and this alarmed its neighbors.

None have so far followed Moscow in recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and another Georgian rebel region, Abkhazia -- both of whose leaders did go to Moscow's hippodrome as Medvedev's guests. Georgia anyway quit the CIS after the war.

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is preparing for a presidential election on July 23, but the other absent CIS leaders all had bones to pick with Russia.

Ukraine, looking for closer integration with the West since its popular revolution in 2004, is at odds with Moscow over gas transit and the future of a Russian naval base.

Belarus, long Russia's closest ally, has clashed with Moscow over gas prices, ownership of gas networks and dairy exports.

Uzbekistan is angry about Russia's support of border hydropower projects in neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which it sees as a threat to its national water supplies.

And Turkmenistan has stepped up efforts to diversify its gas supplies to China and Iran after an explosion in April on a pipeline linking it with Russia, its traditional partner. It has blamed the explosion on the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom...

The New Soviet is Hungry

Georgia continues to be the apple of Russia's eye, and they want to take another bite...

Russia warns Georgia over any move on Ossetia

Tue Jul 14, 2009 2:43pm EDT

* Russia says hopes Georgia learned "lesson"
* Medvedev stresses importance of military exercises

By Denis Dyomkin

NOVOROSSIISK, Russia, July 14 (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday he hoped Georgia had learned its lesson and would not make any more attempts to retake its rebel provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia...

Revising Cold War History - Volume 1

As I've said, this blog is not a 'let's-all-hate-Obama' party, but when the President of the USA goes to Russia and COMPLETELY misrepresents the nature of Cold War and enforces an equivilence that doesn't exist, I have to point it out.

The article below is excellent at doing just that:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124744075427029805.html

Obama Rewrites the Cold War
The President has a duty to stand up to the lies of our enemies.

By LIZ CHENEY
JULY 14, 2009

There are two different versions of the story of the end of the Cold War: the Russian version, and the truth. President Barack Obama endorsed the Russian version in Moscow last week...

Here is one quote from the article that I thought was rather outstanding, and shows how far we have fallen from the tree of common sense:

"No people in history have preserved their freedom who thought that by not being strong enough to protect themselves they might prove inoffensive to their enemies." - President Harry S. Truman

Throwing Molotovs (not the cocktail)

1945.2 The New Divide Begins

APRIL 23 - US President Harry S. Truman tells Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov that he is determined to take a "tougher" stance with the Soviets than his predecessor had. Truman never had the trust fot the Soviets that his predecessor entertained, and spared no time letting Molotov know that the expansionist moves of the USSR were not welcome or helpful.

It is pretty easy to see that as WWII began to wind down, the ideological fissures between the West and East were growing, and accelerating.

(Yes, the cocktail was named after him...)

Start at the Beginning

I'm going to start a march through history, and discuss some of the events that came to be known as the Cold War.

Of course, the leaders of the East and the West didn't just look at their watches one day and decide "Hey! Let's have us a nice little geopolitical tugging match. That sounds like fun". The reality as with all history, it is a blend of events from all comers, though certainly there were moments that punctuated the timeline.

In my mind, and in the mind of many historians, the Yalta Conference laid the groundwork for the East-West struggle.



1945.1 The Yalta Conference

On February 4th, 1945, the Yalta Conference took place, deciding the status of post-WWII Germany. The Allies (the USA, the USSR, and Great Britain) met in the Black Sea coastal city of Yalta to discuss this postwar partitioning and adminstration of Germany, including a section for each of those countries, plus a portion reserved for France.

The "Big Three" (Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill) divided Germany into these four partitions, or occupation zones. These zones were named in a pretty straight-forward way: American, Soviet, British, and French. While these were the initial zones to be defined at Yalta, they would shift and in some cases combine in the future into the West/East Germanies that became the symbol of the Cold War to which many people could relate.

Also of great importance, both at the time of the conference and later on, The Allied nations agreed that free elections are to be held in all countries occupied by Nazi Germany. Of central interest in regards to the free election issue, Poland was was the first item on the Soviet agenda, for a number of reasons. Russia has been a country that has been invaded and overrun for centuries, and it was important to the USSR that Poland serve as a bulwark against that happening in the future. In essence, Poland would become a barrier to invasion, rather than the historical corridor it had been for many years.

In what seems to have been a disingenuous ploy in the conference negotiations, Stalin stated that since "the Russians had greatly sinned against Poland", "the Soviet government was trying to atone for those sins." Stalin concluded that "Poland must be strong" and that "the Soviet Union is interested in the creation of a mighty, free and independent Poland." As part of that, the demands of the Polish government-in-exile were considered immutable - the Soviet Union would keep their territory in eastern Poland (annexed in 1939) and Poland was to be compensated for that by extending its Western borders into Germany. In compliance with the stipulation on free elections, Stalin promised such in Poland. Of course, a Soviet-imposed communist puppet government already existed in Polish territories liberated by the Red Army.

(Stalin never honored his promise, and via rigged elections, Poland became officially communist in January 1947.)

It is also important to note that the United Nations sprang from this conference, slated to replace the failed League of Nations. In contemporary opinion, this level and type of failure for such a global alliance seems to be repeating history...

Some Things Never Change...

I'm going to post an excerpt from Obama’s 1983 Nuclear Freeze article "Breaking the War Mentality", in order to show that liberal peacniks have ALWAYS been illogical. It was a student article trying to explain and contrast a couple of anti-war organizations on the Columbia University campus. Here are words from one of the guys the O interviewed, a Mark Bigelow:

"Because of [Pershing II and Cruise missiles] small size and mobility, their deployment will make possible arms control verification far more difficult, and cut down warning time for the Sovietsto less than ten minutes. That can only be a destabilizing factor."

How is that a possible answer? The Pershings and Cruise Missiles, by virtue of their rapid strike times, brought stability by making the Russians think twice (or thrice) about committing to a first strike. The only way the argument otherwise makes any sense is if you assume we were planning WITH INTENT to perpetrate a first strike ourselves.

The O embraced the 'We Suck' doctrine a quarter century ago, and apparently still does. At least the freakish thing is consistent.

(I fervently do not wish this to become a blog about Obama, as he is merely symptomatic of the disease of liberalism and ignorance of history.)

For the entire 1983 article, see:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/images/nytint/docs/obama-s-1983-college-magazine-article/original.pdf

START-1 Rev A: Will That Happen?

Does this look like a friend and partner to you?

I am just not comfortable with neither the reductions, nor in trusting Russia to truly abide by the agreement, at least on face value. What currently maintains their status as a superpower are their nuclear forces.

I am HIGHLY skeptical that they would follow through on the reduction.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE5653M320090706

U.S.-Russia nuclear deal - spin or deep cuts?

Mon Jul 6, 2009 11:07am EDT

By Guy Faulconbridge

MOSCOW (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama and Kremlin chief Dmitry Medvedev agreed on Monday to cut vast Cold War arsenals of operationally deployed nuclear warheads to 1,500-1675.

The pledge by Obama and Medvedev puts the world's two biggest nuclear powers further along the path to finding a replacement for the landmark 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1) which expires on December 5.

But the cuts announced on Monday only take the United States and Russia 25 operationally deployed warheads below the 1,700-2,200 range which both sides agreed to reach by 2012 under the 2002 Moscow Treaty...

Misplaced Respect to an Enemy

I think we are BY FAR overvaluing the sincerity of Vladimir Putin's motives in negotiating foreign policy spheres with the United States, and I likewise judge that the O doesn't have the backbone to protect our interests.

The article below has some good meat to chew on regarding negotiating the status of Georgia and the West's current inability to stand in the gap against Russian ambition. About the only thing I disagree with is the usual estimation of Russia's relative weakness. Regardless of their frailty, real or imagined, the moves we are making in dealing with Russia will not weaken them or temper them to Western defense.

There are paper tigers in this world, but Russia is not a paper 'Bear'.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124683484600997771.html

Obama and Putin's Russia

JULY 6, 2009

An American President lands in Moscow today to negotiate an arms control treaty. Befitting that retro theme, thousands of Russian troops are in the midst of the biggest war games in the south Caucasus since the end of the Cold War, menacing the small, independent nation of Georgia.

President Obama's two days in Moscow are supposed to foster, in an adviser's words, "a more substantive relationship with Russia" -- the substance being Iran's atomic ambitions, the war in Afghanistan and a replacement for the soon-to-expire Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. You know, the stuff of a quasi-superpower partnership. But Russia hardly looks super, or inclined to forge a partnership, except on its own terms.

Instead, Supreme Leader Vladimir Putin wants to settle old scores and establish what he calls "a zone of privileged interest." He must appreciate Mr. Obama's eagerness to change the subject from Russian belligerence to nuclear weapons, which plays up Russia's remaining claim to superpower status. How that serves America's interests isn't clear...

Go Phillies!!

On this day in history:

July 4, 1946: The Philippines gains independence from the United States, and begins fighting communist Huk rebels.

Nork Missiles May Have A Little Soviet Boost

This is not a good sign. That Soviet heritage shows up everywhere, it seems.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_12743600?nclick_check=1

Experts Find Soviet Parts in North Korean Missile

Thursday, July 02, 2009

WASHINGTON — With concerns rising about a possible North Korean long-range missile test this weekend, two independent scientists say the regime may be using an old Soviet ballistic missile to boost a rocket capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States...

Grid Majic

The story below is, in my opinion, the crux of the matter regarding all the activity in Georgia. While there is a certain desire for renewed hegemony on Russia's part, it seems the real jewel that Georgia represents is a more concrete control of the gas supplies to Europe. Those European winters will be getting colder...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDk_.y4R59.E

Gazprom Seeks Global Deals to Build Gas Grid Encircling Europe

By Stephen Bierman
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom, the Russian company that ships a quarter of Europe’s gas, is seeking supply deals in the Caspian, Africa and around the world to anchor its lead in areas where European buyers may turn to rival producers...

Where to Begin?

Hello There!

There will be more said in the very near future, but let's see if I can summarize for you what this blog is about...

In the waning days of World War II, the Allied Powers worked together to crush the Axis threat, and in the process of doing so also looked ahead to the future to rebuild the world from a massive destabilization.

Of course, rebuilding often took the form of the individual Allied nations carving out their own spheres of influence in the defeated regions. What could have been more natural?

What also came naturally was the conflicting needs and desires of the holders of the new spheres, and that became polarized in very short order into the West versus the East. An 'Iron Curtain' descended over the sphere of the East, and a new kind of war began.

The Cold War

This was a war of spy-vs-spy, open diplomacy, propaganda on an international scale, influence peddling, and of course, when the situation on the ground demanded a hot war, proxy states cultivated by either side. The Cold War existed more or less in the estimate of common historical knowledge until about New Year's Eve 1991.

What is becoming more and more apparent to people worldwide is that the ending of the CW was an orchestrated affair, and the West is indeed STILL at war with the East.

The Frigid Times moves back and forth across the continuum of history in a mission to inform on the CW, both in terms of history and as a bellwether for current events.

Enjoy, and learn. And where I stumble in trying to inform, teach.

TheSearcher